We're still on track to be affected by another significant storm on Friday. Thankfully, this storm won't be as intense as Tuesday's. The storm will be a fast mover. It's over the Four Corners region today, and it will zip to the southern Plains states by Friday morning and then to the Great Lakes region by Friday evening.
This loop of forecast positions of weather features and precipitation areas from the Weather Prediction Center shows the evolution of our Friday storm.
As the storm passes to our northwest on Friday, it will pull a warm front northward through South Carolina, which will cause some rain and potentially a few embedded thunderstorms during the afternoon. There is a small chance for a severe storm with locally damaging wind and hail with this activity, but the primary concern for severe storms will be as a cold front moves in during the evening. A surge of warm and humid air that arrives ahead of the cold front will provide enough thunderstorm fuel for robust storms, and the wind shear ingredient is a given with storms this intense. So, all three severe thunderstorm hazards will be in play Friday evening, with damaging wind being the primary concern and isolated tornadoes the second concern. Damaging hail is a lesser concern, but that can't be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center's outlook puts most of our state in a level 2 of 5 'slight' risk area.
SPC's Severe Weather Outlook graphic for Friday with South Carolina highlighted.
That is a step down from Wednesday's forecast for much of the state, which is good news. However, we must be on guard for severe thunderstorms with a tornado risk late Friday afternoon and Friday evening across South Carolina.
The other potential hazards are low-end. Like on Tuesday, there will be a period of gusty winds between the passage of the warm front and that of the cold front, but the winds won't be terribly strong, with peak gusts in the 35-45 mph range. The Upstate will get the most significant rain, but that area will only see a half-inch to an inch, and the rest of South Carolina will see less. That will only have a small impact on our state's river flooding situation; many of our state's rivers will remain in a minor to moderate flood stage for the next 2-3 days. Parts of our coastline will see minor coastal flooding with morning high tide, but as with Tuesday, the strongest onshore wind will occur later in the day, closer to the low tide.
Behind the storm, this weekend looks dry. Saturday will be brisk and chilly, but Sunday looks better with sunshine, light wind, and temperatures near or slightly below average.
Our next storm moves in later Monday or Monday night. Some rather cold air pushes toward us early next week, too, but odds favor it being late to the party with no part of South Carolina seeing snow or ice. More on that situation Friday, as it will be a close call. After that storm, the rest of next week looks rather cold. I'll have more on that in Friday's alert, too.
