American sports are famed for their statistics⎯all the major leagues have them, including the NBA, NHL, and MLB. However, they don’t play as prominent a role as the NFL. Social media is awash with armchair analysts who claim to know the answers, while you can find hundreds of sites dedicated to NFL stats and strategies.
Wherever you look, stats always pop up in NFL discussions. It’s just a way of the world. But do they actually matter and what are some of the key stats and info you should strive to understand? If you want to improve your NFL betting lines, wager selections, and fantasy sports picks, this article delves into NFL matchups and a range of different stats that can help.
Why Stats in NFL Matchups Matter
NFL matchups are essentially just a game between two teams, such as the Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills. However, there can also be matchups between positions and players. This is because certain positions matchup with opposing positions on the other team.
Having insight into these team and player matchups can help you understand the potential outcomes of the games and see where teams have strengths and weaknesses. For example, maybe one team has weaker wide receivers that might make their QB less effective.
Key Positions to Consider When Placing Wagers and Fantasy Sports Teams
Some positions in NFL teams have a greater impact than others and it’s important to pay attention to the players that occupy these positions. This is because if their form is off, or they have a particularly bad or favorable matchup, it could dictate the flow of play. Two of the most important positions are
- Quarterback
- Wide Receiver
The QB is obviously an integral part of any team⎯they control the play, throw passes, and the offence generally runs through them. Stats to look at for QBs include dropbacks, yards, and touchdowns.
Paired with the QB is usually the wide receiver. The WRs are the ones who typically receive passes from the QB, so there is obviously a huge correlation between the two positions. When considering the WR, most people look at receiving yardage and receptions.
Key Statistics and Metrics to Understand to Improve Your NFL Knowledge
Aside from the matchups and position pairings, there is also a range of advanced statistics that can help you understand player and team performance. Some of these are complicated, so don’t let them detract from your entertainment, but if you are a stats nerd, you need to know about them!
DVOA⎯Defense-adjusted Value Over Average
DVOA aims to provide a success metric for players but within the context of its situation. It essentially measures the performance of a player or team against the league average and is listed as a negative or positive figure, such as -20, where -20 means the player is 20% worse than league average.
PFF Player Grades
Pro Football Focus has created a series of player grades that work in increments of 0.5 to a scale of -2 to +2. They are provided on a per-game basis and aim to provide an overall performance indicator of players. These can be useful when looking at NFL matchups.
EPA⎯Expected Points Added
This is used to evaluate the success of individual plays a team runs. It measures the expected points generated by a play beforehand, to the actual points generated. You can then see if a team is exceeding expectations in particular play types, for example.
CPOE⎯Completion Percentage Over Expectation
This metric measure looks at QB success against the difficulty of the throws they attempt. It gives more context compared to other simple stats, so you can see where a QB excels.
ANY/A⎯Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt
This stat aims to give a complete overview of the production performance of a QB, including stats such as passing yardage, touchdowns, and sacks. The formula is pretty straightforward, and it is great when used with other metrics to look at the effectiveness of a team’s quarterback. The downside is that it doesn’t take into account the opposition, players, and specific matchups and this is where other accompanying stats are needed.
Understanding Statistics and Pairings Can Help Your NFL Understanding
I get that these statistics might appear overwhelming and many of you may be wondering what the point of them is. Surely they don’t make any difference and are a waste of time? But that couldn’t be further from the truth. Statistics, matchups, and position pairings are an integral part of NFL analysis.
By delving deeper into the stats and matchups, you gain a clearer understanding of how the different teams fair up against each other. This, in turn, should help you make more informed decisions for your wagers and as you build your fantasy sports teams.
