As the new year begins, Wall Street analysts roll out their forecasts for the upcoming 12 months. While historical evidence clearly shows that these predictions hold little predictive value regarding the performance of the U.S. stock market—consider, for instance, how the vast majority of analysts were bullish just before major crashes and overly optimistic during rallies—they can still provide valuable insights. After all, each forecast contributes to the vast mosaic that shapes the sentiment of the global financial market.
At this time last year, for example, most analysts anticipated a relatively flat 2024, with a few predicting a significant sell-off. Contrary to these expectations, we witnessed a record-breaking 23% annual gain.
Looking ahead, the forecast for the coming year predicts a 12% rise in the S&P 500, modest compared to last year’s performance. Nevertheless, nearly all leading strategists from the most prominent firms in the sector have adopted a bullish stance—except for two. One expects a sideways market, and Peter Berezin of BCA Research stands out as bearish. Leveraged funds further underline this sentiment: for the first time in history, there are 100 times more assets in bullish funds than in bearish ones.
This overwhelmingly bullish sentiment among U.S. stock market movers coincides with a historical peak in equity valuations. Consider the Shiller P/E ratio—one of the most widely regarded valuation metrics—approaching its all-time high, suggesting that stock prices are growing significantly faster than earnings. Is this good news? As always in financial markets, there’s no definitive answer.
In recent years, market gains have been driven primarily by generative artificial intelligence. Since 2022, it has spurred hundreds of billions in capital expenditures and delivered staggering revenue growth for companies like Nvidia Corp. More broadly, the dominance of the “Magnificent Seven” has transformed how analysts approach their work. With Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Nvidia, Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., Tesla Inc., and Alphabet Inc. accounting for 33% of the S&P 500’s weight, any comprehensive market analysis must include a detailed outlook for them.
While the current upbeat market sentiment is undeniable, it also underscores a potential overvaluation. As financial historian Edward Chancellor notes, market optimism fueled by a transformative technology has been a hallmark of many speculative episodes, from England’s canal boom to the U.S. railroad expansion.
Adding to the concerns, prior to the release of ChatGPT in 2022—before the AI frenzy took hold—stock prices had already rebounded from the post-pandemic crash but remained highly overvalued by historical standards. This makes the situation unprecedented: a bubble forming on top of already extreme valuations, with all the risks this entails.
So, how should we interpret the fact that the vast majority of analysts are now bullish? It calls for caution. During a bubble, avoiding participation altogether can mean missing out on substantial profits and being sidelined from the market. Yet, one must be prepared to exit promptly and avoid being the last to leave the ship.
