A cold front will move through later today and tonight with scattered thunderstorms; some will be severe. Most of the state is at level 2 of 5 on the Storm Prediction Center's outlook for today.
The storms should erupt to our north along the front this afternoon and move into the Upstate during or just after the evening rush hour as they drift southeastward. The primary risk from the storms will be damaging winds, but there can also be hail, and there's also a low-end tornado risk.
The storm risk is highest over the northern part of the state since the event will be ongoing as it gets dark; it will be cooling off during the event, and the atmosphere will become less unstable through the evening (weatherman-speak for decreasing amounts of thunderstorm fuel as the evening wears on). That said, it's going to be unpleasantly hot and stuffy this afternoon, and it will remain sultry enough to sustain intense thunderstorms into the overnight hours.
Speaking of the heat, there is a Heat Advisory in effect for much of South Carolina this afternoon and evening. Just about every point in the state will see the heat index peak over 100 this afternoon, with 105-110 heat indices common for most of the state. Be careful if you'll be working or playing in the heat this afternoon and evening.
On the bright side, it looks like the models from late last week are going to be right: a somewhat cooler and much less humid air mass will move in Wednesday and remain with us for the rest of the week. That means we'll see a stretch of relatively pleasant days to end the week. Highs will mainly be in the low 90s across the state each day.
However, it looks like we'll have some haziness from smoke originating from wildfires in Canada and the northwestern U.S. The smoke will mostly remain aloft, so the impact to air quality should be limited. Just keep in mind that if you smell smoke, it’s not necessarily because something’s burning nearby.
It looks like we'll see unsettled weather return over the weekend. We sure do need the rain, but don't count on substantial drought relief just yet.
Review severe storm preparedness info ahead of tonight's storms! See y'all on Friday.